Take-up was up in European Offices in Q3 21, however vacancy was stable sequentially and lfl growth was negative, especially in France (-4%). Residential Germany was the key driver of the consolidated 0% lfl
Companies: Covivio SA
It looks like the crisis hasn’t impacted Covivio that much. However, both rising vacancy and incentives in the region of Paris in Q2 21 (offices) are a persisting concern. Short-term catch-up continues.
Aside both the unsurprising performances of Hotels (-46%, but RevPar down 84%) and German Residential (+3.4%), European Offices were down 1.1% lfl in Q1 21. Our estimate was a positive 0.5% in Q4 20. Revenue now embarks the rising vacancy of Q2-Q3 20 in full.
The first cracks were confirmed in peripheral locations as far French offices were concerned. Hotels were experiencing the all but surprising collapse without accounting for a strong cut in book values. German residential was supporting the big picture.
The increasing vacancy was the premise of negative organic performance as from Q4 20 in the Office segment. Some recent deliveries could mask an organic decline for a while (Offices), as far as consolidated figures are concerned.
Values were almost stable in H1 20. Neither valuers nor the transaction market itself acted in the new reality. We observed a yield compression of 10-20bp on the full portfolio despite negative macros.
Forget the insignificant (good) Q1 20 figures. The current discount of c. 40% vs. the latest NAV (December 2019) will be consumed by progressive dilution (dividend in scrip), write-off of GAV (10-15% as a minimum), and a remaining ex-post discount of 20-25% only. The safety harness looks therefore insufficient, should values be down by more than the above-mentioned 10-15% mark.
Covivio decided to buy the listed Godewind in Germany, or a fully cash €1.2bn deal. It will extend its European Offices platform (France / Italy) following its successful residential German investment and alongside its Hotels branch. The recent share price catch up, from €90 in August 2019 to €110 today, translates the global shareholders’ race for yield, pushing the market to value Offices well above NAVs. The party continues.
The share now trades far above its latest NNNAV. Even if we do not detect an emergency, we believe that some end-markets are at risk. We do not identify a buy opportunity on Covivio and stick to our negative stance.
The positive revaluations were close to zero in both French and Italian Offices, once the pipeline’s contribution is excluded. The good news was… Berlin and its 9% value growth in H1 19 vs. December 2018, thanks both healthy lfl growth and very strong additional yield compression. However, the full impact of the rent-freeze policy is not included at all. The next imprtant date being February 2020 (FY 19 figures), the market will keep in mind today’s good news for a while.
Nice quarter with positive news on the organic growth front as well as on the pre-let ratio concerning 2019 expected deliveries. Capital gains (margin) on disposals are now close to the neutral area, but we do not expect massive negative revaluations by the end of H1 19 according to Q1 figures. However, the market cannot expect significant valuation improvements on the standalone portfolio (excluding pipeline delivery). Released EPS momentum will slow from H2 19.
Covivio is an other property company to announce (slight) deleveraging. This behaviour is now spreading to all asset classes as Covivio owns offices (Grand Paris, Italy), homes (Germany), hotels (Europe). Compression yield probably stopped on H2 18 (Offices/France). Germany shows another strong year with additional 12% revaluation.
FdR released its FY17 results. Rental income increased by 3.9% yoy at €927.4m, with a portfolio valued at €21bn (+10% yoy). The company has agreed to sell €1.4bn worth of assets to reduce its exposure to Telecom Italia and the non-core offices in France. FdR also extended its Spanish exposure, with the acquisition for €559m of 17 hotels. Overall, the published numbers were above our expectations.
FdR published an H1 recurring net profit of €198.3m, up 12% yoy. Rental revenues recorded 3% growth (organic +1.9%, of which 4% from German residential). The occupation rate stood at 96.6%. LTV was around 42.9% vs. 44.6% in FY16.
With acquisitions in Berlin, Milan, Barcelona and Madrid, the portfolio value increased by 9% yoy (3% lfl), standing at €21bn. EPRA NAV was up a notable 10% to €6.6bn (€88.4 per share). The development pipeline reached €4.1bn, of which 83% in offices (Paris, Milan, Ly
We have updated our model on FDR following the €508m worth of acquisitions made in Q1 and the €400m capital increase.
Acquisitions were primarily made in Spanish Hotels (€305m at yield 5.7%) and in German Resi for €180m at a yield 3.8%, and finally €22m in Italy at a yield 6%.
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Agronomics is an investment company focused on investing in the cellular agriculture sector. The sector is responding to global mega-trends driving increased demand for animal protein, which in turn could lead to negative environmental effects. Cultivated meat, for example, uses cell culture technology to grow cells in bioreactors producing differentiated cells (such as muscle and fat cells) that can be formed into consumer food products. These technologies have the promise of producing animal p
Companies: Agronomics Limited
Duke's H1/22A results give evidence that FY22E will be a record year, with a strong rebound from Covid-19 disruptions, with impressive YoY growth across all metrics. Having already completed all forecast deployments for FY22E, our forecasts are well underpinned and upgraded by +9% today. Comments of Duke having its healthiest ever pipeline with near-term deals likely, suggests further upgrades could be possible this year. If seen, any improvement in FCF p/s is likely to drive DPS uplifts, in add
Companies: Duke Royalty Limited
We update our forecasts to take account of (1) Group 2020/2021 Annual Report & Accounts released in September (2) 1Q IMS released in October (3) End October 2021 FUM update in early November. Key points include:
Group Funds Under Management “FuM” remain circa US$11 bn; in October there was a small uptick which may indicate small net inflows.
Strong investment performance across CLIG’s investment strategies (Exhibit 3 shows performance over 5 years relative to peers and benchmarks).
Companies: City of London Investment Group PLC
Companies: Oakley Capital Investments
i(x) Net Zero, the investing company which focusses on Energy Transition and Sustainability in the Built Environment, announces its intention to join AIM. Following Admission, the Company intends to use the net proceeds of the proposed Fundraising to provide development and expansion capital to certain of its investee companies, for future investments in companies that fall primarily within its areas of interest in Energy Transition and Sustainability in the Built Environment and to provide work
Companies: TGN AFC COIN COIN HL/ OMI
Evidencing the strength of Belvoir’s long-term growth strategy and the very buoyant conditions in the UK housing market in 2021, the company has detailed that trading in the ten months to the end of October was ahead of expectations. Lettings income was up 21% and Housing Sales income up 65%, driving total Property gross profit up 29%. Financial Services gross profit increased 39%. We have upgraded FY 2021E EPS by 3%. While we maintain our view that next year will likely see more normal housing
Companies: Belvoir Group PLC
Liontrust has reported a strong, in line H1 performance (+93% adj. PBT) on continued organic growth including £2.1bn net inflows YTD, as well as a full period contribution from Architas. The H1 outturn has covered 47% of our FY adj. PBT estimate, which we leave unchanged. AuM has continued to grow: +2.2% to £36.5bn in Q3 so far – momentum has been sustained. We think the valuation is not challenging given the outlook for growth. We set a 2450p 12m Target Price (18x FY23e PER) and a BUY recommend
Companies: Liontrust Asset Management PLC
Gore Street Energy Storage Fund (GSF) has announced that Kilmannock, one of the Company’s ROI
assets in construction, has secured an additional grid connection volume allocation of 90MW (in
addition to the 30MW). The initial 30MW benefits from a six-year fixed price contract, while the
remaining capacity can primarily derive revenues from extra capacity which could be used forwholesale
trading or the volume uncapped DS3 market (Delivering a Secure Sustainable Electricity System). GSF
Companies: Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC
Companies: Chrysalis Investments Limited
Mercia reported a strong rise in the NAV of its Northern Venture Trust (NVT) subsidiary, reflecting the IPO of musicMagpie and other successful exits, leading to Mercia receiving a net performance fee of £1.6m. As a result, together with Mercia’s substantially recurring management fees, management expects H122 PAT to exceed £10m, with the FY22 adjusted operating profit (excluding the NVT net performance fee) expected to be materially ahead of market forecasts. The shares trade at a larger discou
Companies: Mercia Asset Management PLC
Gore Street’s confirmation of a 90MW capacity increase at Kilmannock is a clear positive in our view and takes the fund’s portfolio to over 600MW of projects either operating or under construction. These are split between the GB market and the all-Ireland market with the fund now owning the largest portfolio of storage assets in Ireland. In the GB market price volatility continues to be strong and we expect the fund’s assets to be benefiting from this.
Avation is a lessor of 42 commercial aircraft to a diversified airline client base. This morning, the group has provided an update to coincide with its AGM, that illustrates the further progress made and wider developments in the first five months of the current financial year. The group presently has three ex-Virgin Australia ATR 72-600 aircraft subject to a sale agreement with Aegean Airlines, three further ATR 72-600 aircraft that may be sold or leased and an A320 due to transition from Air F
Companies: Avation PLC
We have published research on TMT Investments recent News flow, which is attached and a snapshot of the research is below.
The venture capital company investing in high-growth technology companies has seen its share price fall some 23% to US$7.25 over the last week, against a backdrop of weak global equity markets, concerns over the emergence of the Omicron Covid-19 variant and signs of tightening monetary policy. However, since the publication of HY June 2021 results on 18 Augus
Companies: TMT Investments
Companies: Equals Group Plc
A key focus for the company in 2021/22 was to de-gear the Balance Sheet with sales at or above book value. Two separate property sales in Bristol, One Castle Park (£20m) and 135 Aztec West (£3.9m), have been agreed well ahead of their March 2021 book value and when the former completes in mid-December pro forma net LTV will reduce to c29%. Further sales of assets where the company has carried out its business plan can be expected, which would provide even greater financial firepower for acquisit
Companies: Circle Property Plc