Borussia Dortmund has an established track record as one of the most successful football clubs in Europe. This enables it to exploit structural tailwinds, increasing global and multi-media coverage, to drive long-term revenue growth. FY21 was a challenging year financially due to the negative effects of COVID-19 related restrictions, but the team was relatively successful including winning major silverware and guaranteed participation in the financially lucrative Champions League in FY22. The ph
Companies: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co. KGaA
Borussia Dortmund’s FY21 preliminary results are slightly above management’s expectations at the EBITDA level and testimony to how well the cost base has been managed given the on-off expectations through the season about the return of fans to the stadium. The challenging year has led to an increase in the company’s net debt position, unusual for a club that is conservatively run from a financial perspective, but recent transfer activity and higher match attendance should lead to an improved fin
Borussia Dortmund’s Q321 results reflected ongoing cost control, while COVID continued to affect attendance-related revenues. The team’s late surge to finish third in the Bundesliga, and more silverware by winning the DFB-Pokal ensured a pleasing end to a challenging year. We increase our FY22 EBITDA forecast by 33% to reflect a more positive outlook for attendance at matches given the roll-out of COVID vaccines. There will be much speculation about the futures of a number of key players during
Borussia Dortmund’s Q221 trading update showed higher profitability year-on-year due to active cost control despite lower revenue in aggregate as a result of COVID-19, and noting that the majority of revenue sources increased. Our recent Outlook note highlighted the attractive financial characteristics of Borussia Dortmund’s business, in isolation and versus its peers, in ‘normal’ times. Therefore, the company should be a prime beneficiary of life returning to normal, with improving momentum in
Borussia Dortmund’s Q121 results were affected, as expected, by the delayed start to the 2020/21 season, and the severe restrictions on fan attendance at games as experienced towards the end of the prior season. The recent decision by federal and state governments to further restrict attendance at games, in response to the resurgence of COVID-19 in November, highlights the uncertain operating environment for the club. We currently retain our prior forecasts but our SOTP valuation reduces by 8% t
The 2019/20 season was typically successful from a sporting perspective, which reaffirmed Borussia Dortmund’s position as one of the leading football teams in Germany and Europe. The coming year is likely to be more challenging financially due to the operating restrictions necessitated by COVID-19, but the company is well placed to deliver a strong recovery in earnings if restrictions ease, albeit visibility on these is limited. The valuation reflects the uncertain outlook as it is trading at a
The 2019/20 season was typically successful from a sporting perspective, which reaffirmed Borussia Dortmund’s position as one of the leading football teams in Germany and Europe. The coming year is likely to be more challenging financially due to the operating restrictions necessitated by COVID-19, but the company is well-placed to deliver a strong recovery in earnings if restrictions ease, albeit visibility on these is limited. The valuation reflects the uncertain outlook as it is trading at a
Borussia Dortmund’s Q320 results were positive from a profit and cash flow perspective despite the impact of COVID-19 at the end of the period. The Bundesliga has led the way in recommencing games after the season was temporarily suspended, albeit games are to be played behind closed doors, which will lead to lost ticket revenue (among other revenues). Borussia Dortmund is well placed to qualify for the Champions League in the 2020/21 season if the current season can be completed. We downgrade o
Borussia Dortmund’s Q120 results exhibited typical volatility due to the key summer transfer window. Excluding the volatile transfer revenue, there was good growth with other revenue up c 15%. We maintain our forecasts but note there is a key Champions League game in less than two weeks and results in the Bundesliga must improve to ensure qualification for the competition next season. The shares continue to look well supported by its player assets and the FY20e EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.8x.
Borussia Dortmund (BVB) enters the international break with mixed results. A decent season start, notably Supercup triumph vs Bayern and top of its strong Champions League group, could have been so much better but for difficulty closing out games, epitomised by four recent draws despite winning positions. This may cost Dortmund in a more competitive Bundesliga than of late (leading eight teams separated by just four points). We are nonetheless raising our current-year EBITDA forecast from €110m
Pushing champions Bayern Munich to the wire can only have enhanced Borussia Dortmund’s (BVB) fabled ‘Echte Liebe’ brand. Three prominent player signings immediately post-season mark its resolve to improve even on a campaign that clearly exceeded expectations with a new head coach and a developing squad. That player spend (estimated at c €75m) is almost covered by the proceeds from January's bumper transfer of Pulisic, while a new independent squad valuation, highlighting Jadon Sancho (19) as the
The recent dip in form (one win in eight games) risks distracting from Borussia Dortmund’s highly successful season with a new head coach and a developing squad. While disappointment is understandable, given raised expectations, the share price upset (down over 25% from its November peak) appears exaggerated as Dortmund (BVB) remains well-placed for its Bundesliga title challenge and has already all but secured Champions League participation for next season, its overriding KPI. Moreover, we are
Bundesliga leaders and unbeaten in their last 13 matches in all competitions, Borussia Dortmund could not have wished for a stronger start under new head coach, Lucien Favre. Indeed, an impressive win over Atlético Madrid already all but assures qualification for the knockout stages of the Champions League, which is in marked contrast to last season's disappointment. We are therefore confidently maintaining our current-year forecast of robust pre-transfer revenue growth (c 12%), driven by intern
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easyJet’s FY21 results correspond to the market’s anticipations as the preliminary figures were communicated previously. Despite the worsening COVID-19 situation in Europe, the group seems upbeat on its capacity forecast for the next FY. Too early to judge whether it is too optimistic as all depends upon the development of the new Omicron variant.
Companies: easyJet plc
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Public Policy Holding Company, to join AIM. PPHC, through its wholly-owned companies, operates a portfolio of independent firms that offer public affairs, crisis management, lobbying and advocacy services on behalf of corporate, trade association and non-profit client organisations. Mkt Cap and Capital to be raised TBC. Expected admission date Mid Dec.
Libertine to join AIM. Libertine has developed a technolog
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Interim results are stellar, commentary on current trading is upbeat and the pace of rollout is set to be stepped up a notch. We push through a 6% current year EBITDA upgrade and formally introduce FY23 and FY24 forecasts. These show a sector leading 2 year EBITDA CAGR of 27% - all self-funded from FCF. Omicron has created a degree of sector uncertainty but FUL has balance sheet strength and is well positioned to capitalise if trade migrates back to delivery and takeaway. On growth criteria the
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Windward (WNWD.L) has joined AIM. Windward is a leading predictive intelligence company, fusing artificial intelligence (AI) and maritime expertise seeking to digitalise the global maritime industry. As at 30 September 2021, the Company had 120 permanent employees and had an annual contract value of US$19.7m, with 99 per cent. of the revenue being subscription based. The Placing raised gross proceeds of £26.3m (US$35m) of new capital for the Company and £8.2m (US$10.9m) for certain exist
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After a stellar period of trading through the various stages of Covid 19 restrictions, and easings, ScS
has reported a step-back in trading momentum in recent weeks. We await to see if the slower
trading is temporary, reflective of a change in Christmas shopping patterns, or of a more permanent
basis. We leave forecasts unchanged, looking for CPTP of £13.7m and EPS of 26.5p (both IFRS 16
compliant), as such the stock trades on an undemanding EV/EBITDA multiple of 4x for FY22 and 3.4x
Companies: ScS Group plc
One Media iP (OMiP) has released a robust FY21E trading update, with Adj EBITDA of £1.65m; slightly below our forecast of £1.8m, owing to it taking a little longer to deploy cash raised on acquisitions of new royalty assets, and adverse foreign exchange movements. The company ended the period with £0.7m of net cash (vs our forecast of £0.3m of net debt), leaving further financial resources available for acquisitions heading into FY22E. Applying a conservative 8x Net Publisher Share (NPS) multipl
Companies: One Media iP Group PLC
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Pendragon has released a trading update today increasing its guidance for FY21 underlying PBT from £70m to approximately £80m. The Group attributes this lower than expected shortfall in the supply of new vehicles in the first two months of Q4 2021. Performance has also been supported by a strong GPPU because of a higher mix of premium vehicles sold. We have increased our FY21 forecasts of underlying PBT by 14.1% to £80.2m. We leave our FY22 and FY23 forecasts unchanged at this stage. Whilst we t
Companies: Pendragon PLC
An unscheduled but positive update this morning with good news on 5 fronts – full repayment of the CLBIL, new banking facilities, international franchising, strong current trading and site expansion. Margins are being maintained and going into 2022 we cite various factors which should mitigate the well-publicised sector headwinds. We make no forecast changes today but do see further upside risk. Whilst there’s been a strong recovery in the share price since 2020, the valuation is far from full.
Flutter reported muted Q3 20 sales numbers, which missed estimates. Sales were up 12%, driven by the strength in the US and Australia. However, the former posted its first quarter of sequential revenue decline, an indication of the increased competition in the highly attractive market.
Following the pause in operations in the Netherlands (~£50m EBITDA impact over the next three quarters), the firm lowered its FY21 EBITDA target by ~7%. We will be downgrading our estimates.
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Cornerstone is a provider of foreign exchange (forex), payment and currency risk management services, with a focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) internationally. As one of a handful of UK-listed companies in this segment, the company is well-placed to act as a consolidator in a highly fragmented marketplace. The core technology platform is a source of competitive differentiation in the SME segment, and this is being evolved to integrate with accounting systems, in turn evolving th
Companies: Cornerstone FS Plc
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During the challenges of Covid, N Brown has taken the opportunity to accelerate its transformation programme. Strategic change was augmented by the FY2021 £100m equity raise, which alongside strong underlying cash generation sees the Group with a now comfortable balance sheet, with £80.8m of core net cash and all debt securitised against customer receivables. Management has again reiterated medium term targets for 7% annual Product sales growth and a 14% Group EBITDA margin, from which we take c
Companies: N Brown Group plc
Flutter reported consensus-beating H1 21 numbers as pro forma revenue grew 30%. Adjusted EBITDA declined 13%, attributable to larger US losses.
Management expects FY 21 ex-US adjusted EBITDA of £1,270-1,370m, and a £225-275m loss in the US. Hence, aggregate EBITDA should come in at £1.05-1.1bn, in line with consensus but below our estimates.
Following the H1 performance, we do not expect any major changes to our estimates as top-line momentum will be partially offset by softer margin developme