Exactly one year ago, the FTSE 100 closed at 5,862, having fallen 100 points on the day, the lowest point since mid-May 2020, due in part, to the strength of sterling vs US$ at $1.34. One year on, the FTSE 100 has risen to 7,119, a rise of 21%, it remains 7% below the peak in January 2020. From an international viewpoint, US and European markets continue to trade at record highs. The US Federal Reserve is close to withdrawing some of its economic support this year as inflation picks up and the e
Companies: AMYT BAG BVC BRSD CLG CML FBD GDWN INV MACF MNZS MIO NRR NSF NBI MATD PREM QFI RUA SCS STVG SUR SNX UPGS VAST VLS
AG Barr’s (Barr) recent unscheduled trading update (20th July) made for pleasing reading, leading to a 15% upgrade to our FY22 forecasts. Barr has today provided a more detailed breakdown of the Group’s H1 22 outperformance, reflecting both robust underlying demand and some specific one-off events. We leave our recently upgraded FY22 profit expectations unchanged, though we do raise our under review FY23 forecast by 6.4% to EPS of 28.4p. Barr is a very high-quality business in our view, with a s
Companies: A.G. BARR p.l.c.
AG Barr (‘Barr’), the high quality British proprietary branded beverage business, has issued a surprise trading update; a pleasant surprise at that! So, following on from the guidance outlined at the Group's FY21 preliminary results on the 30 March 2021, which led to us forecasting FY22 CPTP of £33.0m, Barr states: "We now expect profit for the current 53-week financial year, to the end of January 2022, to be slightly ahead of the performance delivered in the 52-week year prior to Covid (2019/20
What a difference a year makes - 12 months ago, the focus, quite understandably, was on the course of the pandemic and the lifting of the Lockdown (1) measures. For investors, it was the sustainability of the rally in markets seen since March 2020. Today, while we are still thinking about the lifting of lockdown measures, we are also concerned about two “old favourites” from previous decades. Inflation and the parlous state of public finances. The BoE has said that although CPI inflation rose to
Companies: ACIC BVC BAG BRSD BWNG CBOX CEG CTG CLG CML CRPR DNK EML ESC FAR FA/ GPH INSE MTW MOTR MMAG NRR NESF NMCN NSF OTMP OBD SAVE SCS STVG SNX SYS TMG TGL VLS VOG WYN
As midsummer’s day looms (where has this year gone?), there is greater optimism, in general, than may have been anticipated a few months ago. A post-pandemic, ‘vaccine-driven’ recovery demonstrated by increased consumer spending as lockdown measures are lifted has been one of the catalysts. The FTSE 100 has been range-bound in the last month 6,900-7,100. We have seen a combination of broadly positive company results across a range of sectors, further examples of M&A activity and a sequence of ne
Companies: AMYT ARBB ARW BAG BEG BONH BWNG CWK DNK EML EPWN FBD FA/ GPH GSF GNC HUW IGC INSE KAPE KP2 MMAG NRR NESF OTMP ROL RUA SEN SUR TON TOU TXP TGL VLS WINK
Like much of the UK consumer economy, CY2020 proved to be a year of considerable upheaval and disruption for AG Barr. Indeed, with visibility close to zero at times we withdrew forecasts in late March 2020, reintroducing our FY2021 expectations in July (expectations that were beaten). With visibility now improving, and the UK’s reopening either on-track or accelerating, we reintroduce FY2022 and FY2023 forecasts, looking for a broadly flat current year and a return to strong growth thereafter. M
The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are fa
Companies: AMYT ARBB CEG BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
AG Barr has reported resilient FY2021 results that reflect the impact of the Covid pandemic and subsequent lockdowns for much of the year. Total sales fell by 11.2%, a creditable performance in our view, with CPTP down c12% to £32.8m (exactly in line with our expectations). Whilst the Group reports net cash of c£50m no dividend payment is proposed, albeit the Board has the clear intention to recommence payments in FY2022. The Group has made encouraging strategic progress in our view, with the ch
In the last fortnight, we have surrendered some of the notable progress made over the last three months. That said, the optimism displayed by markets, driven by progress with vaccines and their rollout, persists. The recent direction of markets has been set by volatility in US markets, driven by specific retail market developments. Domestically, we have seen a broadly upbeat procession of results and trading updates/outlooks have, generally, been at least in line. The share price reactions have
Companies: AJIT ARW CEG BVC BAG BEG BON BWNG CLG CRPR EYE ECHO EPWN FDM FA/ GPH GNC HUW INSE KAPE KP2 MNZS NMCN NRR OBD PPC QFI ROL SAVE SCS SEN SOS SUR SNX TON TMG TGL TCN UEM VLS W7L WINK WYN
AG Barr has issued a more than commendable FY2021 trading update, in our view, confirming sales ‘marginally ahead’ of previous guidance and underlying profit ‘ahead of market expectations’. The Group also demonstrates clear balance sheet strength, with net cash at the year expected to c£50m, considerable security in still uncertain times. We raise our sales forecast to £227m (previously £218m), and on a flat yoy EBIT margin look for CPTP of £32.8m (from £29.1m) and EPS of 23.5p, a 13% upgrade, t
AG Barr (‘Barr’) has today published H1 FY2021 results (25 th July), which reflect the combination of material headwinds from the ongoing Covid related market conditions and favourable prior year comparatives. We welcome retained FY2021 guidance from the Group and also understand the retention of an ‘under-review’ dividend policy. Whilst revenues fell by 7.6% pre-exceptional PTP rose 19.4% (the exceptional is largely a noncash write-down of Strathmore brand values) with net cash from operating a
AG Barr ('Barr'), the makers of IRN-BRU, Rubicon and Funkin’ has issued a trading statement for the 26-weeks to the 25th July, with sales in hugely disrupted markets down by only 8%, maintaining share overall, with gains in Scotland. Such a delivery is a little better than we anticipated, though we note the favourable Q2 comparatives and very sunny May. Times remain uncertain - see quarantine for Spain - and the UK is in recession. Barr foresees FY2021 revenues down by 12-15% (including Rockstar
AG Barr has released slightly delayed FY2020 results (delayed due to a broad based, COVID-19 driven request by the FCA), which whilst reflecting a challenging 12 months for the Group are a little ahead of Shore Capital and consensus expectations. In the latter part of the year clear momentum was returning to the business, momentum that continued into early FY2021. However, more recent trading has been impacted by COVID-19, in parts materially so, and management has reiterated it remains unable t
A brief year-end trading update with not a huge amount of details. The main point is that post the July 2019 profit warning, the PBT performance through a combination of mix and cost savings has come in towards top-end of market expectations, implying c18% y/y decline. So a c3% beat vs our £36.5m. Revenue decline at -9% however was worse than our -7%. This reflects ongoing challenges with the Rubicon and Rockstar barns and lower Irn-Bru volume due to price realignment. Net, the company had a bet
Following the H1 2020 results outturn, we assess Barr to be well placed to meet its fullyear guidance, with H2 benefiting from a number of top and bottom-line initiatives – the fruits of which should run into FY2021. Barr’s H1 profit reset, although a notable setback, should be seen in the context of an otherwise exemplary record on execution and delivery. We continue to see Barr as a core holding in the UK consumer landscape. A combination of its high-quality portfolio of differentiated brands,
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on A.G. BARR p.l.c..
We currently have 181 research reports from 6
Food Producers - Trading Comments - WYN
WYNNSTAY GROUP+ (WYN, House Stock, 530p) – Another strong trading update; upgrades!
Companies: Wynnstay Group plc
In 6-month period that has been impacted by well-versed challenges from labour availability, logistical
constraints, and broad-based inflation (commodities, utilities etc.), Cranswick has once again delivered a
strong performance, both on a one and particularly a two-year basis. H1 22 sales increased by 6.4%, with
EBIT ahead by 12.3% - 29.0% and 46.8% respectively over two-years, underpinned by a combination of
elevated demand and new facilities/ business wins. We leave our profit forecasts
Companies: Cranswick plc
Companies: Genus plc
Kellogg delivered a strong quarter driven by a robust top-line growth driven by incremental brand-building investment. The company faced its fair share of inflationary issues including commodity price surges, supply chain problems, and rising prices for packaging and freight which resulted from an imbalance of supply-demand. These might take a few more quarters to get resolved. The management team is also working hard to mitigate the margin impacts of these high costs. While their productivity a
Companies: Kellogg Company (K:NYSE)Kellogg Company (K:NYS)
Companies: Origin Enterprises Plc
Origin Enterprises (‘Origin’) the provider for crop inputs, specialist agronomy advice and digital
agricultural solutions to the Irish/UK, European and LATAM farming communities has today
published its Q1 FY22F (August to October) trading update. We note the Group generates c90% of
its operating profit in H2 given the planting cycle so Q1 tends to be seasonally quieter.
Overall, Origin has made a strong start to FY22F which has been driven by favourable autumn/winter
planting levels compared to
Companies: Hotel Chocolat Group Plc
Britvic’s Healthier People, Healthier Planet strategy proactively addresses the key environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues it faces, including consumers’ health, packaging and waste, water usage, and supply chain management. Its sustainability targets for 2025 are the continuation of ongoing actions to meet stakeholders’ expectations and contribute to a more sustainable future. At the same time, management looks far beyond the targets and takes a broad ESG approach towards both busine
Companies: Britvic plc
Nichols has enjoyed a stronger than anticipated Q3, prompting the management to issue a positive 9m trading update. This signals a full year outcome “ahead of current market expectations.” Good momentum has been seen across the UK and Internationally. Looking ahead to 2022 the challenge will be managing inflationary pressures but history shows Nichols has a good track record on this front. We upgrade our FY21 PBT by 17%. For FY22 we upgrade by 7% to bring us into line with consensus. With the co
Companies: Nichols plc
Cake Box’s interim results, covering the 6 months to 30th September 2021, capture a period of strong sales recovery, continued double digit LFL franchise sales growth and accelerated franchisee store openings. Profit growth is a very strong at 122% to CPTP of £3.7m, EPS of 7.5p. An interim DPS of 2.5p is proposed, up 35% yoy. We upgrade our expectations post today’s update, raising FY22 CPTP by c8% to £7.0m and EPS to 14.7p. A net cash position of £7.0m is expected. With the potential for c400 s
Companies: Cake Box Holdings Plc
We were impressed with Diageo’s presentation as it once again demonstrated its ability to outperform the spirits market, which is itself in a strong position to outperform the drinks industry. Buy and hold.
Companies: Diageo plc
This is our first report on Pond Technologies and we look to provide a detailed account of the various drivers that will be responsible for the company’s growth in the coming years. The company’s business is divided into 3 units – Pond Carbon, Pond Naturals, and Pond Biotech. Each of these segments are critical growth drivers. The market assumes that Pond's stock is fairly valued at existing levels, which is why the fluctuation is negligible, but this is bound to change. The latest partnerhips w
Companies: Pond Technologies Holdings Inc.
Capital Metals (Capital) is developing the high-grade Eastern Minerals Project in Sri Lanka, producing ilmenite, rutile, zircon and garnet for sale. On nearly every measure, the project has superior resource metrics; we see it as fundable and generating high returns for shareholders. We also expect the resource to grow and give Capital options on expansion or mine life extension. The key catalyst, for us, was the acceptance of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) on 23.11.2021, following wh
Companies: Capital Metals plc
An exceptional H1 EBIT, with strong beats everywhere, which, for a large part, will drive the FY21-22 EBIT growth. A strong upgrade is expected for consensus’ full-year expectations, although H2 is expected to slow. The performance can justify the rich valuation, but we see more upside for peers.
Companies: Remy Cointreau (RCO:EPA)Remy Cointreau SA (RCO:PAR)
Britvic’s recovery continued in H2, with continued growth in at-home channels while out-of-home rebounded. GB and Brazil both posted revenue growth, while Other International was affected by weaker performance in France, caused – among other things – by poor summer weather. Organic revenue growth was 6.6%, while adjusted EBIT was up 10% on the same basis. Adjusted EPS was up 2.5% to 44.3p, as it was adversely affected by a one-off deferred tax charge. The dividend per share is 24.2p, up 12%. Cur