Ultimate Products has issued another unscheduled trading update, once again reporting that sales have been more robust than expected. Management states it now anticipates sales in the year ended 31st July will be above £111m, underlying EBITDA* will be above £9.6m and CPTP will be above £7.4m. We have upgraded our forecasts, accordingly, looking for CPTP of £7.5m which delivers underlying EPS of 7.3p. Our forecast net debt position falls to £9.0m (0.9x net debt/EBITDA), leaving the Group still w
Companies: B&M European Value Retail SA
B&M has reported in-disappointing UK B&M sales growth and we expect market consensus PBT of £247m (IAS 17) to reduce by around £10-15m (mid single digit %). There is no update on Germany. We expect the share price to reflect lower forecasts and some de-rating.
Although we remain sellers of B&M it is hard not to be impressed with its ambition and the pace at which it moves. Two recent acquisitions, management change in Germany and pushing through a major warehouse investment in Bedford, as well as opening midhigh single digit percentage new space in the core B&M chain all attest to this.
B&M has reported 3Q UK B&M stores LFL of -1.6% against our expectation of +2% and total UK sales growth of +4.4% (WH +9.5%). This is worse than expectation in our view and compares with underlying +3.6% in 1Q and -1.6% in 2Q, and comparatives 1-3Q 2017/18 of +6.3%, +7.7% and +3.9% (1Q figures in each year adjusted to exclude Easter timing differences). The company points to the exit rate of UK LFL being better at +1.2% and continuation of this rate into 4Q (where the comparative will weaken over
BME has reported 3Q UK LFL sales growth of 3.9% v consensus of around +4% and a tough comparative of +7.2%. Growth has come in lower margin food and FMCG which we believe continues to be vulnerable to price competition for food retailer own brands and in any event dilutes the benefit of sales growth at the bottom line. Germany sales rate declined from +11% 1H to +8% 3Q perhaps indicating negative LFL getting worse in short term. Management is happy with existing EBITDA consensus. The only price
Full year consensus forecasts likely to hold as UK B&M sales UK LFL was +7.7% in 2Q – however, this was achieved with a 80bps decline in gross margin. Overall PBT of £86.8m (+17.8%) was slightly below consensus despite a £2.4m EBITDA contribution from newly acquired Heron Foods. The next key test 3Q trading against start of marketing-driven sales acceleration of 2016/17. Germany had a difficult 1H with EBITDA down 22.5% - this casts doubt on B&M’s ability to manage acquisitions. The company is m
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easyJet’s FY21 results correspond to the market’s anticipations as the preliminary figures were communicated previously. Despite the worsening COVID-19 situation in Europe, the group seems upbeat on its capacity forecast for the next FY. Too early to judge whether it is too optimistic as all depends upon the development of the new Omicron variant.
Companies: easyJet plc
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Public Policy Holding Company, to join AIM. PPHC, through its wholly-owned companies, operates a portfolio of independent firms that offer public affairs, crisis management, lobbying and advocacy services on behalf of corporate, trade association and non-profit client organisations. Mkt Cap and Capital to be raised TBC. Expected admission date Mid Dec.
Libertine to join AIM. Libertine has developed a technolog
Companies: TRAK GAMA AAZ FNTL DPP
After a stellar period of trading through the various stages of Covid 19 restrictions, and easings, ScS
has reported a step-back in trading momentum in recent weeks. We await to see if the slower
trading is temporary, reflective of a change in Christmas shopping patterns, or of a more permanent
basis. We leave forecasts unchanged, looking for CPTP of £13.7m and EPS of 26.5p (both IFRS 16
compliant), as such the stock trades on an undemanding EV/EBITDA multiple of 4x for FY22 and 3.4x
Companies: ScS Group plc
Windward (WNWD.L) has joined AIM. Windward is a leading predictive intelligence company, fusing artificial intelligence (AI) and maritime expertise seeking to digitalise the global maritime industry. As at 30 September 2021, the Company had 120 permanent employees and had an annual contract value of US$19.7m, with 99 per cent. of the revenue being subscription based. The Placing raised gross proceeds of £26.3m (US$35m) of new capital for the Company and £8.2m (US$10.9m) for certain exist
Companies: SPSY MMH KEFI BRSD IKA SEMP
One Media iP (OMiP) has released a robust FY21E trading update, with Adj EBITDA of £1.65m; slightly below our forecast of £1.8m, owing to it taking a little longer to deploy cash raised on acquisitions of new royalty assets, and adverse foreign exchange movements. The company ended the period with £0.7m of net cash (vs our forecast of £0.3m of net debt), leaving further financial resources available for acquisitions heading into FY22E. Applying a conservative 8x Net Publisher Share (NPS) multipl
Companies: One Media iP Group PLC
Companies: Loungers Plc
Interim results are stellar, commentary on current trading is upbeat and the pace of rollout is set to be stepped up a notch. We push through a 6% current year EBITDA upgrade and formally introduce FY23 and FY24 forecasts. These show a sector leading 2 year EBITDA CAGR of 27% - all self-funded from FCF. Omicron has created a degree of sector uncertainty but FUL has balance sheet strength and is well positioned to capitalise if trade migrates back to delivery and takeaway. On growth criteria the
Companies: Fulham Shore Plc
Pendragon has released a trading update today increasing its guidance for FY21 underlying PBT from £70m to approximately £80m. The Group attributes this lower than expected shortfall in the supply of new vehicles in the first two months of Q4 2021. Performance has also been supported by a strong GPPU because of a higher mix of premium vehicles sold. We have increased our FY21 forecasts of underlying PBT by 14.1% to £80.2m. We leave our FY22 and FY23 forecasts unchanged at this stage. Whilst we t
Companies: Pendragon PLC
An unscheduled but positive update this morning with good news on 5 fronts – full repayment of the CLBIL, new banking facilities, international franchising, strong current trading and site expansion. Margins are being maintained and going into 2022 we cite various factors which should mitigate the well-publicised sector headwinds. We make no forecast changes today but do see further upside risk. Whilst there’s been a strong recovery in the share price since 2020, the valuation is far from full.
Flutter reported muted Q3 20 sales numbers, which missed estimates. Sales were up 12%, driven by the strength in the US and Australia. However, the former posted its first quarter of sequential revenue decline, an indication of the increased competition in the highly attractive market.
Following the pause in operations in the Netherlands (~£50m EBITDA impact over the next three quarters), the firm lowered its FY21 EBITDA target by ~7%. We will be downgrading our estimates.
Companies: Flutter Entertainment Plc
Companies: Topps Tiles Plc
Cornerstone is a provider of foreign exchange (forex), payment and currency risk management services, with a focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) internationally. As one of a handful of UK-listed companies in this segment, the company is well-placed to act as a consolidator in a highly fragmented marketplace. The core technology platform is a source of competitive differentiation in the SME segment, and this is being evolved to integrate with accounting systems, in turn evolving th
Companies: Cornerstone FS Plc
During the challenges of Covid, N Brown has taken the opportunity to accelerate its transformation programme. Strategic change was augmented by the FY2021 £100m equity raise, which alongside strong underlying cash generation sees the Group with a now comfortable balance sheet, with £80.8m of core net cash and all debt securitised against customer receivables. Management has again reiterated medium term targets for 7% annual Product sales growth and a 14% Group EBITDA margin, from which we take c
Companies: N Brown Group plc
Flutter reported consensus-beating H1 21 numbers as pro forma revenue grew 30%. Adjusted EBITDA declined 13%, attributable to larger US losses.
Management expects FY 21 ex-US adjusted EBITDA of £1,270-1,370m, and a £225-275m loss in the US. Hence, aggregate EBITDA should come in at £1.05-1.1bn, in line with consensus but below our estimates.
Following the H1 performance, we do not expect any major changes to our estimates as top-line momentum will be partially offset by softer margin developme
Sportech (SPO) has announced plans to return £36m surplus cash to shareholders by way of a tender offer, at 40p for up to 47% of the issued share capital. Assuming the offer is all taken up, SPO will be left with 100m shares outstanding. The deal requires court approval to create the necessary distributable reserves. SPO also announced that it was in discussions to sell its terrestrial lottery business for ca.$14m. The potential upside from the newly agreed sports betting deal in Connecticut (CT
Companies: Sportech PLC